The boosting effect of the hottest biodiesel weake

The boosting effect of biodiesel weakens, and the demand for oil quietly transforms.

the oil market is still within the shock range formed since October 2008. However, after the recent calm shock, due to the changes in the macro situation and the fundamentals of oil itself, short-term market with tentative breakthroughs may exist, and short-term shocks are expected to be intense

first, macro changes

crude oil rebounded to around $50, which gave a certain boost to the oil as a whole, which gradually reduced the pressure on the oil from the downturn. The dollar fell around 90, coupled with the implementation of measures such as the purchase of long-term treasury bonds by the Federal Reserve, the pressure of dollar depreciation was highlighted, which formed a certain support for the price of agricultural products. Recently, the sea freight has fallen significantly, and the cost of imported oil and grease in China will decline, which is conducive to promoting the export of major oil and grease exporting countries, and has a boosting effect on the outer disk of oil and grease

II. The recent oil report is mixed.

1. On March 11, Malaysia announced the production and sales data of palm oil in February 2009

February

January

change

crude palm oil production data

1186501

1329333

- 10.7%

palm oil export data

1256782

1353686

- 7.2%

among them: palm kernel oil

94301

88417

+ 6.6%

import data of palm palm oil

27423

29863

- 8.2%

inventory of palm oil at the end of the month

1561151

1829357

-14 Among them: crude palm oil

903571

1067620

-15.4%

refined palm oil

657580

761737

-13.7% data have formed a relatively obvious positive support for Malaysian palm oil in China's plastic machinery market. Inventories have fallen continuously since the end of 2008, supporting the continued strength of palm oil prices

however, Malaysian palm oil is also facing negative effects recently. Recently, Malaysian palm oil hovers around 2000 ringgit, and the 24 degree palm oil in the international market has also recently exceeded the FOB quotation of crude soybean oil, which may reduce the export attraction of palm oil, and it is likely that the purchase demand of soybean oil in the international market will regain the favor of vegetable oil buyers. Moreover, the recent news from India shows that India may reduce the import tariff of crude soybean oil, which may also be good for soybean oil, while palm oil is limited by the proximity of the price difference with soybean oil, and the future price outlook will continue to be limited by the performance of soybean oil

2、 USDA's monthly supply and demand report data in March is bad for soybean oil

soybean oil

million pounds

opening inventory

3085

3085

2483

2483

output

20568

20568

18810

18645

Import

65

65

50

50

total supply

23718

23718

21343

21178

domestic consumption

18327

18327

17600

16900

Methyl ester biofuel consumption

2981

2981

2900

2200

export volume

2908

2908

1500

1500

but as a kind of printing material, the total consumption

21235

21235

19100

18400

ending inventory

2483

2483

2243

2778

average farm price (cents/pound)

52.03

52.03

31 00

28.. 50 USDA monthly supply and demand report is bad for soybean oil. U.S. soybean oil continued to reduce the consumption of biofuels by 700million pounds, resulting in a decline in domestic demand, and the inventory rose to 535million pounds, increasing pressure. Moreover, the report also lowered the average farm price of soya oil to 28 cents/pound from last month 5 cents/pound

the inventory of international soybean oil market also increased by 250000 tons due to the increase of inventory in the United States. In addition, China's output data was slightly reduced by 100000 tons. Other changes are not significant

III. The development prospect of biofuels is foggy.

in view of the report of the U.S. Department of agriculture that continues to reduce the amount of U.S. soybean oil used to produce biodiesel, we need to explain this situation

1. The European Union imposed

on us biodiesel, the European Union said on March 12 that from Friday, the 27 EU countries would impose two types of tariffs on biofuels imported from the United States, namely anti-dumping duties and countervailing duties. The anti-dumping tariff is 23.6 euros to 208 euros per ton, and the countervailing duty is 211 euros to 237 euros per ton. The EU said in a statement that anti-dumping tariffs and countervailing tariff measures do not involve protectionism, which is to fight unfair trade in order to offset the subsidies provided by the U.S. government to biofuel refiners. According to the investigation of the European Commission, the biofuel export from the United States to the European Union increased significantly, resulting in the sharp deterioration of the biofuel industry in the European Union from 2005 to early 2008. The profit of biofuel production in the EU fell from 18% to less than 6%. The tariff will last for four months, and the European Commission will decide whether to implement a long-term tariff policy

the European Union is an important exporter of biodiesel from the United States, because the European Union requires the gradual realization of a 10% biofuel blending plan. As the United States implements a high subsidy of $1 per gallon of biodiesel production, the biodiesel exported from the United States to the European Union has a considerable price advantage, making the EU biodiesel production unsustainable. However, with the high crude oil price falling back, the profit space of biodiesel is rapidly compressed, and the development of the industry is facing the risk of slowdown

for American soybean oil, the sluggish demand, especially the decline in domestic biodiesel production, has a huge impact on its formation

2. The United States still adheres to a long-term plan for the development of soybean oil for biofuels. According to Tom Vilsack, Secretary of the United States Department of agriculture, on March 16, the U.S. government plans to produce 1billion gallons of soybean biofuels by 2012, which will boost the income of farmers and producers. Soybean farmers and soybean biofuel producers have reason to be optimistic. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency will soon disclose that the new renewable energy standard plans to adopt corresponding flexural tensile and flexural compressive elastic modulus for the tensile and compressive discrimination of the section. This standard includes soybean diesel production plans, but only if the greenhouse gas emissions of this diesel are 50% lower than that of petroleum diesel. According to the data released by the American Soybean Association, 690million gallons of soybean biofuels were produced in the United States in 2008, and about 433million bushels of soybeans were used to produce biofuels last year

as a long-term strategy, the development of biofuels will continue, but the current bumpy road is undoubtedly a setback adjustment period on the way forward for this industry. From the perspective of the impact on American soybean oil, if the profits cannot be improved and the demand market cannot be expanded, the decline in the use of soybean oil here is inevitable, which will significantly reduce the sensitivity of soybean oil to the recovery of crude oil. If crude oil rises, soybean oil may not record the same increase. At the same time, since the rise of the two has deviated greatly since last October, environmental protection needs to be passed. The recent rise in crude oil cannot boost soybean oil in biodiesel production. If crude oil chooses to continue to rise around $50, its support for soybean oil will be significantly enhanced. The linkage between the two still needs further attention

IV. The Fundamentals of the domestic oil market have been differentiated

1. The decline in the import of vegetable oil in the early stage is closely related to the increase in the substitution of oilseeds and the sluggish trade purchase and sales. However, due to the upside down of domestic and foreign prices, there are profits in imports, which makes it possible for imports to recover in the later stage. Pay attention to import changes

preliminary data released by the Chinese customs showed that China imported 480000 tons of edible oil in February, a decrease of 31% over the same period last year. The import volume of edible oil was 700000 tons in February last year and 290000 tons in January 2009. The customs also announced that in the first two months of this year, China imported 770000 tons of edible oil, a decrease of 33% over the same period last year. It should be noted that China imported 40000 tons of soybean oil in February, down 89% from the same period last year. Soybean oil imports totaled 60000 tons this month, down 89% from the same period last year. The spot price of domestic soybean oil has maintained a premium on imported soybean oil for a long time, and the import situation is expected to improve in the later stage. There is still room for the recovery of import volume.

the recent spot inventory pressure of soybean oil is not large, which is better than palm oil. Due to the low consumption season and weak international market prices, many oil plants have shut down significantly, and weak demand still exists. However, with the passage of time, the decline of spot soybean oil supply will also leave the possibility for the increase of soybean oil imports in the later period. The recent trend of soybean oil is instructive for the oil market as a whole, and soybean oil is expected to show a trend of increasing volatility after being flat in the near future

the recent negotiations between Argentine farmers and the government and the successive introduction of the US Department of agriculture's planting intention report will make soybean oil more hyped. Pay attention to the performance of soybean oil

2. Palm oil survived under the attack of the boost of the external market and the rapid increase of domestic port inventory

due to the fall of oil and fat last year, which greatly widened the price difference between palm oil and other oils, bargain hunting procurement increased rapidly, and the domestic port inventory of palm oil gradually increased from the lowest 200000 tons, and now it is close to the high inventory of 500000 tons, which makes the domestic palm oil demand has not been significantly started, And the situation of increasing pressure on hoarding, the upside down of internal and external prices will continue. The future trend is still to be guided by soybean oil, which makes palm oil still follow in the near future

3. Rapeseed oil is under pressure to increase production, and we are still looking forward to the policy guidance

may will be the season for the listing of new rapeseed, and this year's rapeseed production is expected to be very strong. The grain and Oil Information Center predicted in March that the output of rapeseed in 2009 may reach 13million tons, up 1.2 million tons from 11.8 million tons last year, which means that under the condition that the international price of rapeseed is still relatively low, rapeseed in the new season will face greater price pressure. Since China adopted temporary collection and storage measures for Oilseeds in the second half of last year to reduce farmers' losses, under the background of national policies supporting farmers' income increase this year, the market is full of expectations about whether the country may adopt new collection and storage policies to set a base price for rapeseed, and the policy impact will be strong

however, before the introduction of the policy, we should still pay attention to the large increase in the import of rapeseed oil before the listing of new seeds. Due to the fact that the market has purchased more rapeseed oil from Canada, the spot price of rapeseed oil is facing strong downward pressure recently. Basically, if there is no clear policy information and the weather conditions in the production area are normal, rapeseed oil will still maintain a range fluctuation and follow the fluctuation trend of soybean oil in the near future

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