We heard the cracking sound of the real estate iceberg
we heard the cracking sound of the real estate iceberg
March 19, 2014
[China paint information] the real estate market, as a place of multiple interests and complex games, the volatile price essence is an unusually hard foam. When the market fails and the road of foam is difficult to contain, both market participants and regulators as "night watchmen" should abandon the worship of the original market fundamentalism and have the awe of the market law
in the past week, we seem to hear the crack of the iceberg - the transaction volume of the property market has shrunk in a large area of the country. After the bungee jumping price reduction in the Hong Kong property market to improve the management effectiveness of various sectors, the property market in Hangzhou fired the first shot at price reduction, real estate regular customers smashed the sales department, Changzhou, the famous "ghost city" in economically developed regions, developers broke their arms to survive, and more than 5000 yuan of real estate was hung up
even Ren Zhiqiang, the "last dead bull", suddenly changed his mouth after the Spring Festival. He said at the Yabuli forum that the increase in house prices will decline significantly this year. "Many developers think that this year may be as optimistic as last year. I personally warn them that you are too optimistic and dangerous." The cautious "boss" Wang Shi made a speech. On February 19, Wang Shi expressed his views on this year's real estate market with "very bad", and said "I will not change my view". Its so-called "no change" is based on its statement in September last year
earlier last year, a larger tycoon, Mr. Li Ka Shing, who has experienced several real estate changes, laid out a large area to empty his properties in the mainland and Hong Kong. Wang Shi immediately reminded the industry on Weibo, "this is a signal, be careful!" He said publicly in the CBS "60 minutes" program, "China's housing prices are too high, and there is a foam in the real estate market... Ordinary residents in Shanghai may have to pay more than 45 times their annual salary to buy a house." He warned, "if the Chinese style real estate foam bursts, it will be a disaster."
after Wang Shi's words, Yu Liang of Vanke intentionally or unintentionally published a statement similar to that of the president of a bank last year, "the profit of the banking industry is too high, lying down to make money is embarrassed, and it is difficult to make money or not", to the effect that the real estate profit is too high, "what will be subverted and attacked most? The fatter the easier it is to make money, the more subversive it will be."
yes, last year, real estate sales exceeded 8 trillion, developers took away 1 trillion, and suppliers, general subcontractors and partners in the interest chain took away 1 trillion. In fact, the profit of this industry has been equal to that of China's most monopolized and profiteering banking industry
Li Yang, vice president of the Academy of Social Sciences, surprised everyone with his words, "the real estate industry has prominent problems, and the financial sector is already preparing for a possible decline in the future." Compared with the usual ups and downs and sword light and shadow, the rare consensus formed in an unprecedented short time after the Spring Festival this year has become the bone that pushed down the property market. Because of its high sensor accuracy (some reaching within 3 of 100000), it has also opened up a brand of friction coefficient tester that can test the friction coefficient. The panic mass stampede of the real estate market may occur at any time
the prosperity of China's real estate started with the institutional reform in 1998, and the unprecedented urbanization process in the past ten years has brought about the migration of villages to cities, "digging all over the city" and "bombing everywhere", giving birth to cement forests; The urban-rural segmentation and the imperfect social security system have accumulated an ultra-high savings rate, the lack of investment assets, narrow investment channels, and the widespread wealth anxiety and hunger of the whole society. The mixed fuel formed by the ultra-high currency circulation has sent house prices into "outer space" far beyond the income level of the Chinese people
the process of pushing up prices is so long that almost all participants are lucky and enjoy the dividends of rising house prices. The solidification of interests, general self-interest complex and wealth effect make them believe that real estate speculation will always make money. However, will there ever be a prosperous unilateral market in the world? How does the house price rising into outer space return and establish a "long-term mechanism" like a return capsule? If not, it will crash violently with the rigid rupture and waterfall fall of the United States or Japan? Of course, for China's real estate market, the closing method is still a suspense drama
the essential connotation of any asset foam is very similar, that is, excessive money issuance and credit expansion. The once "American secret recipe" and "American myth" have been in full swing around us in recent years: the king of the earth flies to the sky, more than a billion kings are "Pediatrics", 10 billion kings fly all over the sky, and the king's flag changes at the city head; Dominated by the panic "doomsday complex", the eyes are full of "Day CD" and "night CD", and no matter how expensive the house will be, "night light"; Grabbing a suite is like Zhongda lottery. "Lace" says that some buildings are in short supply. If you want to buy a suite, you should give gifts to developers. Everyone is ecstatic
the purchase and loan restrictions are in vain. Market managers, banks and developers are in collusion with each other. The house purchase certificate can be bought at any time with money. 3 in case the contract price of a square house is "50000", it is equivalent to borrowing from the bank in full without the down payment... The storm will hit, and speculators, regulators and banks have given up their umbrellas. Everyone is lucky that "the market will have the metal glory that people see forever". The witches and prodigies vowed that "the price has not risen enough", "the introduction of wafer/chip production lines, advanced photoresist, electronic wet chemicals and other integrated circuits and supporting industrial projects will be doubled", "the house price in Beijing and Shanghai will rise to 80 square meters". If the question itself is wrong or even absurd, then the answer is not important
when Americans reflect on the relationship between the subprime mortgage crisis and real estate, they say that it is like baseball players who inject steroid hormones to artificially strengthen their muscles in order to achieve better results. In the years of soaring house prices, Wall Street injected too many stimulants into the market. Baseball stars stimulated by stimulants have created brilliance, but the artificial wealth foam in real estate went up in smoke with the "creative destruction" and historic collapse of Wall Street
the surging tide receded, and those who did not wear swimming trunks were naked in front of them. And China's m2, which has exceeded one billion, tells us that the asset foam accumulated in China's real estate market in the golden years of more than a decade is also the result of a long-term high-energy currency drive
with the surge of real estate transaction volume, the financial system must provide a large number of new currencies to support the expanding market transaction scale. In the good time when the land market is flowing with money, in the economic system in which local governments dominate the allocation of resources, a high degree of bundling between real estate and the banking system has been formed. Whether it is real estate development loans, government platforms, enterprise loans, the effective collateral recognized by banks is mainly land. After ten years of evolution, China's largest landlord has quietly changed from the government to banks
local governments use administrative power to drive down the cost of land acquisition, through planning adjustment and land denaturation, replace loans from banks with land supply methods of "drawing big cakes" and "squeezing toothpaste", and carry out rolling development, so on. The land value increases by dozens or even hundreds of times, and the wealth effect turns into huge energy, which all needs to be driven by a huge amount of money. Once the fuel is burned out, the rocket will stall or even fall, the artificial wealth foam will burst, and the luxury feast will eventually come to an end
the real estate market, as a place of complex game of multiple interests, is an extremely hard foam in nature. When the market fails and the road of foam is difficult to contain, both market participants and regulators as "night watchmen" should abandon the worship of the original market fundamentalism and have the awe of the market law
Soros has a famous saying: "only a few foxes are always ahead of the market and often choose to leave on the left side of this historical price." Fox has special wisdom and vigilance, which is an effective control of "risk aversion". In Li Ka Shing's words, "I don't want to earn the last coin". In fact, those who want to earn the last coin will certainly become lonely and desperate left behind
mountains are high and valleys are deep. When the lever is long enough and the foam is big enough, when all luck, superstition and greed are suddenly countered by panic at a certain moment, and the expectation is sudden, it will be too late to shout "help" at that time. Now, all kinds of shark bloodthirsty financial forces are preparing for battle and waiting for success. Tiger sees the asset foam pool of China's real estate, and shorting this market is a "super profitable cause". In the words of a scholar, they are eager to put the last scoop of oil of exchange rate appreciation on China's raging asset foam, and then squeeze the last drop of essence from the exhausted Chinese economy before leaving. "Support" instantly becomes "stick"
the most direct driving force behind the tenfold surge in China's real estate over the past decade is the over issuance of money. Money is the most attractive and creative wealth carrier for mankind, but the prosperity brought about by increasing the money supply is short-lived. No country's currency can maintain a stable currency value and long-term stable and balanced asset prices after the flood
the history of human currency tells us that nothing is easier than destroying the economic and social foundation of a country by destroying its monetary system. The model of money releasing water to create foam, the economic model of over reliance on real estate, and the model of kidnapping the government and kidnapping banks are all the most vulnerable models. There is no unique Chinese model that can be independent, and no one can be unconventional