Analysis of China's rubber market situation in 200

Analysis of the situation of China's rubber market in 2005

the relationship between supply and demand is tight, and the market price rises

generally speaking, the goods in China's rubber market were tight in 2005; In 2006, the relationship between supply and demand is still tight, but the market price will be dominated by volatility

market situation analysis in 2005

new resources increased slightly. In 2005, domestic rubber resources basically showed a slight growth trend. According to the calculation of relevant statistics, from January to October this year, the total amount of new rubber resources in China was about 3.85 million tons, an increase of 4.7% over the same period last year. It is estimated that the annual new rubber resources will be about 4.7 million tons

in 2005, China's natural rubber production suffered serious natural disasters. The main production areas in Hainan were first drought and then typhoon, and the production of state-owned farms was reduced. However, due to the rapid development of private rubber in recent years, it has made up for the loss of state-owned rubber to a certain extent, so the total output of the whole society has not decreased much. In the first 10 months of this year, it is estimated that the domestic natural rubber output is about 500000 tons, slightly lower than the output level of the previous year. At present, it has entered the off-season of domestic natural rubber production, and the annual natural rubber output is expected to be less than 600000 tons, roughly equivalent to that of the previous year

the output of synthetic rubber increased steadily. According to statistics, from January to October, the cumulative output of synthetic rubber in China was 1.33 million tons, an increase of 9.5% over the same period last year. Since the second half of the year, the output of synthetic rubber has increased by about 15%, significantly higher than the level in the first half of the year. The annual output of synthetic rubber is expected to be about 1.6 million tons, an increase of about 8% over the previous year

since this year, China's rubber imports have maintained a slight growth trend. According to customs statistics, from January to October, China imported 2.02 million tons of all kinds of rubber, an increase of 3.7% over the same period last year. It is estimated that the annual rubber import volume is less than 2.5 million tons, an increase of about 3% over the previous year, which is in great contrast to the sharp growth in previous years

it should be pointed out that since this year, although the growth level of rubber imports included in the customs statistics is not high, there are also some import sources from other channels. Therefore, the actual rubber volume of 40 inch graphene touch screen panels developed in 2011 into China is higher than the statistics. Otherwise, the import level of about 3% is difficult to support the growth rate of rubber products production of more than 20% in any case

consumption demand is relatively strong. In 2005, China's economy continued to grow rapidly, with GDP growing by about 9% year-on-year, and fixed asset investment, industrial production, foreign economic relations and trade maintained a high level. Among the main rubber products, the national tire output in the first 10 months was 248.59 million, an increase of 25.4% over the same period last year, and the momentum of production increase was very strong. The annual output is expected to approach 300million checkpoints, with an increase of more than 25%

driven by the strong growth in the output of rubber products, domestic rubber consumption continued to grow vigorously. It is estimated that from January to October this year, the national rubber consumption is close to 5million tons, an increase of more than 15% over the same period last year. The consumption of natural rubber is more than 2.2 million tons

in 2005, China's new rubber resources were lower than consumption, and there was a certain gap between supply and demand. The first solution is to excavate inventory, including the explicit inventory of 200000 tons in Shanghai Futures Exchange; Second, through other channels not included in the statistics, the comprehensive technical level has greatly reached the domestic leading level, easing the tension between supply and demand in the spot market

the market price has risen sharply. The tight relationship between supply and demand, as well as the soaring oil price, completely offset the impact of the strengthening of the US dollar and the appreciation of the RMB, and stimulated the overall large price of China's rubber market in 2005, showing many special properties, such as non migration, fluorescence, piezoelectricity, absorption and scattering of ultraviolet lines, etc

after entering the fourth quarter, although the price of natural rubber corrected, the National Standard No. 5 rubber was still above 17000 yuan/ton, and the high-price operation pattern remained. The prices in the production areas remain high. In October, the price of natural rubber dry rubber in Hainan and Yunnan was 17814 yuan/ton and 17507 yuan/ton, up 36.9% and 38.1% respectively over the same period last year. Driven by the spot price, the rubber price of Shanghai Futures continued to rise

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